{"id":8445,"date":"2021-11-19T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-11-19T11:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dezernat-zukunft.org\/?p=8445"},"modified":"2022-06-07T16:07:47","modified_gmt":"2022-06-07T14:07:47","slug":"the-cyclical-component-of-the-debt-brake-analysis-and-a-reform-proposal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dezernatzukunft.org\/en\/the-cyclical-component-of-the-debt-brake-analysis-and-a-reform-proposal\/","title":{"rendered":"The cyclical component of the debt brake: analysis and a reform proposal"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"font-size: 12px;\"><strong><a href=\"mailto:florian.schuster@dezernatzukunft.org\">FLORIAN SCHUSTER<\/a>, MAX KRAH\u00c9, PHILIPPA SIGL-GL\u00d6CKNER, DOMINIK LEUSDER<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-1 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<a href=\"https:\/\/dezernatzukunft.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Konjunkturkomponente_eng_final-2.pdf\" class=\"testbutton\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> Download PDF <\/a>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;The whole paper\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<a href=\"https:\/\/dezernatzukunft.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/KK-FAQ-eng-4.pdf\" class=\"testbutton\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> Download PDF <\/a>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;A small FAQ <br><br><br>\n\n\n\n<a href=\"https:\/\/dezernatzukunft.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Gutachten-summary-eng-2.pdf\" class=\"testbutton\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> Download PDF <\/a>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Summary of a legal opinion on the cycle component\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Reforming the debt brake (Schuldenbremse) is often understood to require constitutional change. Frequently overlooked, however, is that a crucial part of the debt brake is governed by ordinary law, namely the cyclical component (Konjunkturkomponente). By allowing for more or less net borrowing depending on the level of economic activity, this component was intended to enable a counter-cyclical fiscal policy, while both limiting and legitimising new spending. Sections 1-7 of this paper assess to what extent it is fulfilling this purpose.<\/p>\n<p>We find that the cyclical component in its current form is no longer up to scratch, for four reasons. (1) Contrary to legal requirement, it does not take into account the latest social-scientific research. (2) It relies on an arbitrary notion of the \u201cnormal level\u201d of economic activity and as a result delegates too much discretion to civil servants, who are insufficiently legitimised to exercise this discretion. (3) It no longer corresponds to the original intention of the legislators. (4) In the context of the Stability and Growth Pact, it was never intended to be used and implemented as it is in Germany now.<\/p>\n<p>To address these shortcomings, sections 8 and 9 outline a reform proposal at the subconstitutional level. We propose amending some of the inputs that go into the calculation of the cyclical component. Instead of largely projecting them forward from historical data, we outline how they could be specified on the basis of what generates sustainable public finances in the long run, namely the full utilisation of economic capacity to raise the long-term growth path. However, this proposal does not address some of the debt brake\u2019s more fundamental flaws. It is intended merely as a pragmatic first step towards a more democratic, coherent and sustainable fiscal policy in Germany.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<p class=\"executivesum\" style=\"border-left: 8px solid #ee6174; text-align: center;\"><em>Our&nbsp;<strong>Fiskalprojekt<\/strong>&nbsp;aims at developing a new paradigm for fiscal policy, fit to meet the challenges of our times.<br>In a first step, this involves a reform of German fiscal rules at the level of ordinary legislation to enable sustainable investment and full capacity utilisation in the labour market. Over the coming months, papers with further specific reform proposals will be posted here. To stay up to date on our publications, feel free to subscribe to our&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/dezernatzukunft.us18.list-manage.com\/subscribe?u=e80f99448e2133d2d0099e4cb&amp;id=2a7db2a8a7\">newsletter<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\n\n<p><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Debt brake (Schuldenbremse) reform is often understood to require constitutional change.<br \/>\nFrequently overlooked, however, is that a crucial part of the debt brake is governed by ordinary<br \/>\nlaw, namely the cyclical component (Konjunkturkomponente). By allowing for more or less net<br \/>\nborrowing depending on the level of economic activity, this component was intended to enable a<br \/>\ncounter-cyclical fiscal policy, while both limiting and legitimising new spending. Sections 1-7 of this<br \/>\npaper assess to what extent it is fulfilling this purpose.Recent research, however, has shown that this paradigm yields suboptimal results in the current environment: It neither ensures the long-term sustainability of public finances, nor limits external imbalances, nor effectively contributes to solving the challenges Germany faces today, in particular decarbonisation and demographic change. As this is increasingly being recognised, a lively debate on the future of fiscal rules has developed, both in Germany and internationally. This working paper contributes to that debate by developing reform ideas that depart from a positive goal for fiscal policy rather than from the deficiencies of the current rules.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":53,"featured_media":5159,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[194],"tags":[163,220,55,272,278,145],"class_list":["post-8445","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-papers","tag-economic-policy","tag-eng","tag-fiscal-policy","tag-fs","tag-mk","tag-wirtschaftspolitik"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The cyclical component of the debt brake: analysis and a reform proposal - Dezernat Zukunft<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Institut f\u00fcr Makrofinanzen\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dezernatzukunft.org\/the-cyclical-component-of-the-debt-brake-analysis-and-a-reform-proposal\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The cyclical component of the debt brake: analysis and a reform proposal - Dezernat Zukunft\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Institut f\u00fcr Makrofinanzen\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/dezernatzukunft.org\/the-cyclical-component-of-the-debt-brake-analysis-and-a-reform-proposal\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Dezernat Zukunft\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-11-19T11:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-06-07T14:07:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/dezernatzukunft.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Fiskalprojekt-Background_konjunkturkomponente.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1050\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Florian Schuster-Johnson\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@DezernatZ\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@DezernatZ\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Florian Schuster-Johnson\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dezernatzukunft.org\/the-cyclical-component-of-the-debt-brake-analysis-and-a-reform-proposal\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dezernatzukunft.org\/the-cyclical-component-of-the-debt-brake-analysis-and-a-reform-proposal\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Florian Schuster-Johnson\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dezernatzukunft.org\/#\/schema\/person\/ecf92b842bff569467c963f95e50b235\"},\"headline\":\"The cyclical component of the debt brake: analysis and a reform proposal\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-11-19T11:00:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-06-07T14:07:47+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dezernatzukunft.org\/the-cyclical-component-of-the-debt-brake-analysis-and-a-reform-proposal\/\"},\"wordCount\":419,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dezernatzukunft.org\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dezernatzukunft.org\/the-cyclical-component-of-the-debt-brake-analysis-and-a-reform-proposal\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/dezernatzukunft.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Fiskalprojekt-Background_konjunkturkomponente.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Economic policy\",\"ENG\",\"Fiscal Policy\",\"FS\",\"MK\",\"Wirtschaftspolitik\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Papers\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dezernatzukunft.org\/the-cyclical-component-of-the-debt-brake-analysis-and-a-reform-proposal\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/dezernatzukunft.org\/the-cyclical-component-of-the-debt-brake-analysis-and-a-reform-proposal\/\",\"name\":\"The cyclical component of the debt brake: analysis and a reform proposal - 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