{"id":1201,"date":"2019-07-12T19:43:44","date_gmt":"2019-07-12T17:43:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.dezernatzukunft.de\/?p=1201"},"modified":"2023-10-17T10:59:44","modified_gmt":"2023-10-17T08:59:44","slug":"industrial-policy-is-necessary-in-todays-world-interview-with-jens-suedekum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dezernatzukunft.org\/en\/industrial-policy-is-necessary-in-todays-world-interview-with-jens-suedekum\/","title":{"rendered":"“Industrial policy is necessary in today’s world.” Interview with Jens S\u00fcdekum"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Arsen Fazlovic interviewed Jens S\u00fcdekum (Website<\/a>, twitter: @jsuedekum), “Economist to the Mighty” (FAZ<\/a>) and Professor of International Economics at the D\u00fcsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE<\/a>) at Heinrich-Heine-University. S\u00fcdekum is CEPR Research Fellow, chairman of the Committee for Regional Theory and Policy at the Verein f\u00fcr Socialpolitik (VfS), and former editor of the Journal of Regional Science.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. To compensate for the end of lignite mining and coal power generation, the German Government has decided to invest 40 billion euros, between now and 2038, in mining areas. Will state-supported battery factories\u2014i.e. industrial policy\u2014save rust-belt regions like the Lausitz?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Possibly. But the money must be used sensibly. In addition to “no-brainers” such as investing in education or better transport links to major metropolitan areas (e.g. the Berlin-Cottbus rail line), this includes the targeted creation and expansion of future-proof industries. In this sense, the Lausitz really does need industrial policy. But \u201cindustrial policy\u201d is a vague term: for some it is central planning in disguise and the road to ruin, for others a panacea and the future of economic policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. So what, really, is industrial policy?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I take industrial policy to consist in the intentional and\ntargeted influencing of sectoral production structures. In other words: state\nsupport for value creation and good jobs in manufacturing and associated high-value-added\nservices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A prime example is targeted support for research and\ndevelopment (R&D) in previously defined industrial sectors. This can be\nused to internalise so-called “knowledge spillovers” via the coordination\nof research across companies: instead of each firm reinventing the wheel, the\naim is to share knowledge and build on each other\u2019s progress. Other examples\ninclude direct subsidies or investment aid for private sector firms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industrial policy can be economically rational. Concerning investment\nin basic research, the state has longer time horizons and deeper pockets than\nindividual companies. It can take on higher risks. Through its commitment, it\ncan coordinate and stimulate investments from the private sector that would not\nbe possible without prior state involvement. These are the classic arguments\nfor industrial policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. How significant is industrial policy in the German economic model as it stands?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Very significant. German economic policymakers are nearly always\nalso industrial policymakers. After all, a politician\u2019s personal success\ndepends, to a significant extent, on having successful firms and sectors in\ntheir constituency to provide prosperity, jobs and tax revenues there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is no surprise, then, that promising firms and sectors are nurtured and supported, more or less openly. Take R&D funding: in Germany we have an extensive network of research institutes, such as the Fraunhofer Gesellschaft<\/em> or the Helmholtz<\/em>–Gesellschaft<\/em>, which cooperate closely with firms on market-oriented R&D. This works well and, I should add, goes well beyond basic research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More extensive forms of industrial policy, for example\nsubsidies, are rarely talked about. Ordoliberal rhetoric is often used as a\ncover in German debates: the state\u2019s role is to provide a “good investment\nclimate,” the market does everything else. In my view, however, this is a\ndistorted image: serious, long-term-oriented politicians have always concerned\nthemselves with the major (re)location or investment decisions of large\ncompanies, whether through offering industrial sites, linking public infrastructure\nprojects to private investment, or other forms of more or less overt public\nsupport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Truth be told, the question is not whether<\/em> the state pursues industrial policy, because it always\ndoes. The question is about how<\/em>: what\nspecific instruments are used, and towards which ends?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. Is this West German, hidden, form of industrial policy still fit for purpose today?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For some years now, The\nEconomist<\/em> has written about a “new cold war,” a battle for technological\nleadership between the major global economic blocs. And indeed, the\ninternational context in which German and European industrial policy takes\nplace has changed fundamentally. To the East, the Chinese government is\nconsolidating its strategic industrial policy around the “Made in China\n2025” plan. The aim is for Chinese manufacturing firms, for example in mechanical\nengineering and medical devices, i.e. in some of the key sectors of German\nindustry today, to gain global market share and ultimately achieve market\nleadership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To the West, Donald Trump instituted his “America\nfirst” policy in 2017. This is primarily a defensive strategy, directed against\nChina, which aims to secure and, if possible, deepen the economic hegemony of\nthe United States. Trump is using decidedly protectionist means to achieve\nthis. But in essence his trade war is nothing more than an extreme form of\nindustrial policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. How can Europe counter this?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whatever else it does, Europe cannot simply stand by and\npretend that nothing has happened. If other countries actively strive to\ndominate industrial sectors fundamental to our prosperity, we must react. In\nthe current international context, we Europeans have<\/em> to pursue an industrial policy to defend our “absolute\nadvantage”, whether we have an intellectual-semantic problem with that or\nnot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The logic resembles that of strategic trade policy. The\nEuropean Union reacted very successfully to Donald Trump’s tariffs, by imposing\nits own retaliatory tariffs, and in the end defused the trade conflict, at\nleast for the time being.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, a European industrial policy would have to\ndevelop Europe\u2019s strengths in a targeted and tangible manner. A good industrial\nstrategy is an investment strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

6. German Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy Peter Altmaier recently presented his “National Industrial Strategy.” Together with his French counterpart, Bruno Le Maire, he wants to create “European Champions” to match large competitors from China and the USA: does size matter? Are these the right instruments?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Altmaier’s paper is asking the right questions, openly so,\nand that is to be welcomed. Unfortunately, however, there is much to criticize\nconcerning the proposed instruments and answers. The strategy lacks an investment\nagenda. Instead, the creation of “European champions”, i.e. ever-larger\nfirms, through the softening of merger rules is the paper\u2019s prime proposal. That\u2019s\nthe wrong tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Take the following example: The Chinese rail giant CRCC is\nsystematically winning market share in Turkey, Latin America and Africa, with\nthe help of domestic economies of scale and unbeatable financing offers. This\nis one aspect of the so-called “Belt and Road” initiative, a sister\nprogram of “Made in China 2025.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European railway manufacturers, of course, would also like\nto export to these markets. But neither Siemens nor Alstom can succeed, on\ntheir own, against the state-subsidized might of CRCC. Hence the idea of a\nmerger to create a European rail champion to match CRCC. But what would have been\nthe result? Higher market shares in export markets, perhaps, but also a\nquasi-monopoly in Europe and thus higher rail prices in Spain, Italy and on the\nwhole continent. At best, granting an export cartel would have made sense, but a\nmerger, no.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Generally speaking, weakening competition at home is a bad\nway to succeed in competition with the Chinese. There is simply no evidence that\nthis strategy works. Instead, Europe must strive for technological leadership and\nsecure its market shares in that way. We must try to maintain and expand our\nmarket position in the central industrial sectors through new, better or safer products.\nBut neither quality nor innovation comes cheap. They require investments, most\nimportantly by the relevant companies themselves, but also by the state. This\nis where the classic arguments mentioned earlier come into play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, an investment strategy\u2014unlike the weakening of\nmerger and competition laws and regulation\u2014costs a lot of public money. And in the\nEU, with its restrictive budgetary and fiscal rules, mobilizing significant\nsums is not easy. Maybe that is why Altmaier\u2019s industrial strategy is such thin\ngruel, because he did not dare touch certain sacred cows. But it\u2019s here that\nany serious discussion must begin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

7. American and Chinese firms dominate digital winner-takes-all platforms and technologies. Is a “digital Airbus,” i.e. a European champion for digital services and data processing, an answer to this?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is difficult for me to judge which specific sectors\nEurope should focus on. But two aspects seem important to me: First, it cannot\nbe a question of entering into price and cost competition around existing\nbusiness models. I simply do not see a European Google or anything like that on\nthe horizon, and we would probably not have a chance of creating one, even if\nwe tried. The focus should be where Europe is already leading today. Or even\nbetter: on business areas that do not even exist today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Second\u2014and here I do have something specific in mind\u2014climate\nprotection must play a central role in any European industrial strategy. When\nit comes to green technologies, e.g. energy storage, alternative propulsion technologies,\nand so on, Europe (and Germany in particular) continues to be at the forefront.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But\u2014to repeat myself\u2014a “green industrial policy” needs\nmoney and willpower. Scaling up existing research initiatives, or creating a\nnumber of European Institutes of Technology capable of competing with the best\nAmerican institutes in terms of equipment and flexibility, is expensive. Further,\nsince applied research requires tight links to industry, attracting\nresearch-intensive companies to the right sectors and locations is\nimportant\u2014and rarely cheap. Mind you, a targeted research and development drive\nfor climate-friendly technologies could be financed via bonds, since we are\ntalking about long-term social and economic goals here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

8. What are the most important pitfalls that industrial policy faces in practice?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The biggest problem for successful industrial policy is the\ninherently limited nature of state knowledge, as well as the practical limits\nof state control. There is always a danger that public money backs the wrong\nhorse, sinking large sums of taxpayers’ money in the process. Hayek’s classic\nargument, the “pretence of knowledge”, must be taken seriously. In\naddition, there are political economy problems, such as when industries are\npromoted because their stakeholders are well connected, rather than in virtue\nof their potential for productivity or innovation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, these pitfalls do not imply that we should abstain from industrial policy. What they call for is caution and smart design.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

9. What can Germany learn from other countries? What are noteworthy examples?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Generally speaking, there is an abundance of anecdotes but a\nshortage of systematic evidence on industrial policy. Nevertheless, existing research\nholds certain lessons: experience from South Korea or Japan, for example, shows\nthat the most successful forms of industrial policy promote dynamic industries\non the basis of broadly defined goals and without selecting specific\ntechnologies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An example: instead of focusing exclusively on electric\nvehicles, the state should set \u201cemission-neutral mobility\u201d as the goal and\nallow for the exploration of alternative technologies such as fuel cells or\nsynthetic fuels. At some point, this may lead to problems with a lack of\nscaling if several technologies are developed in parallel. Eventually, there\nmay come a point where one has to decide. But betting on a single horse right\nfrom the start is dangerous\u2014it could be the wrong one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

10. Even if, with a technology-neutral strategy, there is a risk of more bad investments?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the not-so-secret secrets of Silicon Valley is its\n“embrace of failure.\u201d Out of ten start-ups, seven fail, two just about\nsurvive, and only one really takes off. That’s enough, however, for venture\ncapital funds to be profitable. Public industrial policy could work in a\nsimilar way. It simply won\u2019t work if money is only committed on absolutely sure\nthings.  There must be experimentation\nand an appetite for risk, even when it comes to taxpayers’ money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, industrial policy must have off-ramps and\nexit strategies. This is perhaps the hardest problem: if an idea or a\ntechnology does not take off, the state cannot support it forever. At some\npoint the rug must be pulled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These decisions are not easy. There are many possibilities\nfor error. But to abandon industrial policy and leave the field to others,\nbecause we (falsely) do not believe the state to be capable of it, is no longer\nan option in today’s world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

11. What could the next European Commission do if it wanted to set the right conditions for this?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe must recognise that industrial policy is necessary in\ntoday’s world. But it must not rely on harmful instruments simply because they\nare cheap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industrial policy is above all the targeted promotion of\ninnovation, green technologies and new sectors and industries. And I cannot stress\nit enough: this is costly. But that\u2019s OK! Innovation, green technology, and\nsuccess in the industries of the future are worthwhile goals on which to spend\npublic money. To find these funds, the new EU Commission must find clever\nfinancing models, perhaps in cooperation with the European Investment Bank and\nthe ECB.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When doing so, the new Commission must keep Europe’s priorities in mind. After all, industrial policy is about the value creation and good jobs of tomorrow, together with emission neutrality and climate protection. These objectives are more important than restrictive fiscal rules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Picture: \u00a9 Jarko Sirkil\u00e4<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Arsen Fazlovic interviewed Jens S\u00fcdekum (Website, twitter: @jsuedekum), “Economist to the Mighty” (FAZ) and Professor of International Economics at the D\u00fcsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE) at Heinrich-Heine-University. S\u00fcdekum is CEPR Research Fellow, chairman of the Committee for Regional Theory and Policy at the Verein f\u00fcr Socialpolitik (VfS), and former editor of the Journal of Regional Science. 1. To compensate … Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":1186,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[192],"tags":[163],"class_list":["post-1201","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-archive","tag-economic-policy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n"Industrial policy is necessary in today's world." 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