20. November 2024
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Fachtexte
A controversial investment
Nils Gerresheim, Max Krahé
The US semiconductor company Intel is planning to build two ultra-modern chip factories near Magdeburg. This project was promised the largest industrial policy subsidy that the German government has ever approved for an individual company: almost 10 billion euros. Is this money well-spent? To answer this question, we developed guidelines for the evaluation of government investments (BESTInvest). This paper sets out these guidelines and applies them to Intel-Magdeburg. Our conclusion is that the subsidy is controversial. Although learning curve-, cluster- and innovation effects can create path dependencies in semiconductor production, there are uncertainties surrounding the size of these effects, and the impact of a single subsidy is likely to be moderate. Accordingly, it remains unclear whether the support would suffice to make Intel-Magdeburg competitive in the long term. In addition, relatively few jobs would be created, in a local labour market where there is currently a shortage of skilled workers. This calls into question the effects of the project on the regional and wider economy. In addition to economic factors, there are also relevant climate and sovereignty factors, which are positive but moderate. The over-all assessment therefore depends on the respective weights given to individual factors, as well as, if necessary, on the willingness to promote cluster formation and the competitiveness of the semiconductor industry in Germany and Magdeburg with further measures.
Work on the content of this report was completed before the postponement of the start of construction of Intel-Magdeburg on September 16 was announced.
Why did we write this paper?
Industrial policy is becoming increasingly important in advanced economies. In Germany, too, more active measures are being pursued, building on the industrial policy strategy published in 2023. This includes the planned Intel fab in Magdeburg. With an intended subsidy of 10 billion euros, this is the largest industrial policy project in the history of the Federal Republic.
In this context, we wanted to understand how to distinguish good from bad industrial policy projects. To this end, we developed an evaluation guide for state investments, called BESTInvest (BEwertungsleitfaden für STaatliche Investition). We applied this guide to the subsidy for the Intel plant in Magdeburg to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the project and present them transparently. With this evidence-based discussion, we hope to strengthen the democratic process and future industrial policy decision-making.
What did we learn?
We learned that evaluating industrial policy measures on the scale of the Intel project is a complex endeavour. With Intel-Magdeburg, the German government is pursuing goals in the areas of macroeconomic and regional prosperity, climate transition and sovereignty. Whether the learning curve, cluster and innovation effects are sufficient to achieve a lasting increase in prosperity commensurate with the investment sum is uncertain, as it depends on specific, sometimes improbable, developments. On the labor market, few jobs will be created relative to the scale of the subsidy. Already existing shortages of skilled workers would likely be further exacerbated. The climate and sovereignty effects are positive, but moderate. Scenarios in which the Intel fab makes a significant contribution to Europe’s independence are unlikely. In other words: the subsidy constitutes a controversial investment. Nevertheless, a comprehensive assessment of the Intel-Magdeburg project depends on the weighting of the individual aspects. This should not be done by us, but by policy makers.
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